College Football 25 simulation: Will Utah State snap its losing streak against New Mexico, Bronco Mendenhall?

Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every Utah State game against an FBS opponent this season.
Going into the second half of the 2024 college football season, Utah State is searching for answers.
The Aggies are 1-5 and on a five-game losing streak.
Will a game against a program with a similar record — New Mexico is 2-4 — help Utah State pick up a much-needed victory?
We’ll find out Saturday afternoon.
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and it was wild.
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 12-minute quarters — I bumped that up from using 10 minutes during the first half of the year, to better reflect an accurate number of possessions per game — and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
CPU ratings have also been adjusted a bit from the standard to make pass defense more realistic — in my opinion, passers were completing an unrealistic amount of attempts in previous simulations, so I adjusted the passing accuracy from 50 to 35, then adjusted pass defense ratings from 50 to 80. That helped to create more realistic numbers.
Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented — in this one, it was some long standing injuries that made the biggest impact for Utah State.
The Aggies have several players on the defensive line banged up — defensive tackles Miguel Jackson and Taz Williams, as well as defensive ends Enoka Migao, Blaine Spires and Gabe Peterson — that didn’t play.
I also matched up the uniform combos we’ll see in the game the best I could.
Utah State is going with an all-blue look for the afternoon tilt. There was no information on New Mexico’s uniform, so I went with their traditional road look.
The actual score: UNLV 50, Utah State 34
College Football 25 simulation final score: UNLV 38, Utah State 21
My analysis: While the simulation accurately predicted that the Rebels would win by a couple of scores over the Aggies, it came a bit different in real life.
UNLV led 41-7 at halftime in the actual contest, while the simulation had the game at 14-14 into the third before the Rebels pulled away.
Either way, it was another tough loss for Utah State.
Final score: Utah State 38, New Mexico 35 (overtime)
Key sequence: The Aggies got the ball first in overtime, but after a Jack Hestera 17-yard catch moved the ball to the New Mexico 9-yard line and a Rahsul Faison 6-yard run put the ball at the 3 on second and goal, the drive stalled and Utah State was forced to settle for a 19-yard Elliott Nimrod field goal.
The Lobos quickly picked up a first down, but a beat-up Utah State defense came up with the winning play.
With New Mexico facing third-and-4 from the Utah State 8, little-used safety Omari Okeke stepped in front of a Devon Dampier pass and grabbed the game-winning interception at the Aggies 2-yard line to set off the celebration.
How the simulation transpired: This one was crazy — and it shouldn’t have gone to overtime, if Utah State could have held a three-score lead.
The Aggies dominated the first three quarters and were up 35-14 in the fourth before New Mexico scored three touchdowns in the final five minutes of regulation to tie things up.
Utah State scored on its first two possessions — on the Aggies’ opening drive, a solid punt return set them up at midfield, and Faison caught a 7-yard touchdown pass midway through the first quarter.
On the ensuing New Mexico possession, Bronson Olevao Jr. intercepted a pass at the New Mexico 30 and returned it inside the 20. The drive kicked off with a 14-yard pass to Jalen Royals, then Spencer Petras scored on a 4-yard touchdown run to cap the two-play drive.
The Lobos finally put together a long drive to start the second quarter — using a balanced mix of run and pass — before Eli Sanders scored on a 1-yard run on a pitch on third and goal with 8:06 until halftime.
Late in the half, another New Mexico turnover gave Utah State a prime scoring opportunity, as JD Drew intercepted a pass at the Utah State 40 and returned it to the New Mexico 46 with 1:07 until halftime.
After driving into the red zone, Petras found Hestera for a 19-yard touchdown with 11 seconds until the break to make it 21-7.
The lead grew on the opening kickoff of the second half, as the electric Royals took the kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown to make it 28-7.
Later in the third, New Mexico cut the deficit to 14 points again after Sanders scored on another short touchdown run. Utah State, though, answered with a 13-play, 80-yard drive that ended with Faison scoring from 3 yards out to make it 35-14 with 1:46 left in the quarter.
That set up the fourth-quarter theatrics that took some time before coming to fruition.
New Mexico’s first drive of the fourth actually ended up in a turnover on downs, as Utah State held inside the 5 — stopping three straight runs before a pass on fourth down went out the back of the end zone.
The Aggies, though, had a series of mistakes that got New Mexico back in the game.
On the Lobos’ next drive, Sanders finishes a 53-yard possession with a 1-yard touchdown on third and goal with 4:14 to play.
Utah State went three and out on its ensuing possession and punted from its 24, and New Mexico’s passing game started to heat up, while Dampier scrambled for a 28-yard gain on the Lobos’ drive to move the ball down to the Aggie 15.
On the first play after the two-minute timeout, Dampier found Ryan Davis for a 14-yard touchdown on third down to make it 35-27 with 1:56 left in regulation. The Lobos went for two but didn’t get it, though New Mexico still had all three timeouts and chose to kick off deep on the ensuing kickoff.
It got even crazier.
After the Lobos were forced to use one timeout, Faison fumbled on second down of the ensuing possession, but New Mexico threw four straight incompletions before turning it back over to Utah State — including a pass to a wide-open receiver at the goal line on second down.
The Aggies ran the ball on three straight plays and punted the ball with 46 seconds left.
New Mexico started its drive at its own 40 with 41 seconds to play, and it only took two plays for the Lobos to score. First, Dampier completed a 31-yard pass to Trace Buckler, then made a 29-yard touchdown connection with Caleb Medford for what ended up being an 11-second drive.
The Lobos converted the two-point attempt, again through the air, and that sent the game into overtime, where Utah State found a way to overcome the wild final few minutes.
Star players: Petras threw for 208 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 17 rushing yards and another touchdown.
Royals led the Aggies with eight catches for 100 yards and had the 95-yard kickoff return for a touchdown, while Faison put up 105 rushing yards and had a receiving touchdown.
Defensively, Olevao filled up the stat sheet with 11 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, one sack and an interception.
Sanders paced New Mexico with 88 rushing yards and three touchdowns, while Dampier threw for 257 yards and two touchdowns, with three costly interceptions. Medford had six catches for 109 yards and a touchdown.
Key stats: The Lobos had a sizable advantage in total yards — with 459 to Utah State’s 334 — while both teams were 9 of 18 on third downs.
The Aggies, though, won the turnover battle 3-1 — the first two turnovers Utah State forced led to touchdowns, and the third ended the game.
My analysis: On paper, this looks like a competitive game, and the simulation appears realistic, if not overly dramatic.
It’s totally plausible that a close game will transpire in Logan, with the game coming down to the final possession.